数学中有两种思想方法,一种是归纳,一种是演绎。118Please respect copyright.PENANA4OmHVC9oZI
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归纳是指,你测量了很多个三角形,发现它们的内角和都是180度,所以你推断,所有三角形的内角和都是180度。118Please respect copyright.PENANAfpczql4JEe
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演绎是说,三角形的内角和是180度已经成为真理,那么拿出任何一个三角形,你都可以推断它的内角和是180度。118Please respect copyright.PENANAIi1uBEV3p8
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徐策向来习惯用演绎法进行思考,他排斥归纳法。118Please respect copyright.PENANALA9WAESs1K
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因为归纳法不是逻辑上的必然证明,存在天然的小概率事件。118Please respect copyright.PENANAM0WujHU6WK
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归纳是经验的总结,演绎是逻辑的推理。118Please respect copyright.PENANAw0x94wBGhQ
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经验往往容易麻痹人。118Please respect copyright.PENANAL7VjOpvZNV
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而逻辑正确才足可信赖。118Please respect copyright.PENANATnd6cWHXFB
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这个道理可以应用在一切事上,包括犯罪。118Please respect copyright.PENANAyoGP4RPvlV
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但他也明白,无论计划多么完美,仍然无法杜绝小概率事件的发生:118Please respect copyright.PENANAzLErizwkY9
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比如他在行动时,突然有辆车开过来了;118Please respect copyright.PENANAOkKf6RDfmT
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或者旁边草丛里有个傻子下午睡过了头,刚好那个时候醒来;118Please respect copyright.PENANAYwEbQUp6Sk
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再或者门房里的保安在那个时间点,突然心血来潮跑到凤栖路上透透气。118Please respect copyright.PENANAw0QHLhjSSG
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这些事情虽然是小概率,但一旦发生了,就彻底悲剧了。118Please respect copyright.PENANANLTDzVOIDJ
118Please respect copyright.PENANA7akqTg9XKC
徐策计划的本质,不是杜绝黑天鹅事件,黑天鹅是杜绝不了的,他能做的,是顾及他力所能及的每个细节。118Please respect copyright.PENANA8CkqEmbta7
118Please respect copyright.PENANA3UDmJ2pOAi
他已经演练了很多遍,包括对假人,对同样体重的活猪,也包括实地的踩点,他相信,只要给他35秒,他就能完成这次行动。118Please respect copyright.PENANAW95WWVcmDg
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多天的连续跟踪和等待,终于等来了那个晚上。118Please respect copyright.PENANAMQ9RqwOjAz
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徐策低头看了眼表,已经将近11点。他站在凤栖路南段离路口大约400米的路旁一棵树下,躲在树后的阴暗里。118Please respect copyright.PENANA19qFhkpxzq
118Please respect copyright.PENANAawhDnj80ZB
面前的凤栖路,每隔20米是盏路灯,路灯很亮,光线很好,简直太好了。这是个不利因素。118Please respect copyright.PENANAfqn9BxQraP
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但好在现在是冬季,到了这个时间点,路上已经有十几分钟没遇到人和车了。这是个有利因素。118Please respect copyright.PENANAl5xOwcos6m
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冷风中,他不断握捏着手指,不时转动脖子,保持必要的身体灵活性,这样才能在35秒内完成所有事。118Please respect copyright.PENANA5jkatq3dBM
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今天是一个机会,希望一切如自己意料进行。即便不成功,他也不担心会暴露,他已经做了周密计划。118Please respect copyright.PENANA48x7MEQNgX
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这时,沿海南路有辆车打着强光灯转进了凤栖路。118Please respect copyright.PENANAtne12mENlE
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他从口袋里掏出准备好的夜视析光望远镜,举到眼前。——只有析光镜才能在强光灯下看清楚。118Please respect copyright.PENANAj0pfZbKHm9
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这辆奥迪,这张牌照,这个人,而且只有一个人……就是今天了!118Please respect copyright.PENANAr0eirSeB6L
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车速很快。——得让车停下来才能下手。118Please respect copyright.PENANAndkwvrZGPA
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这个不用担心,他早做了安排。118Please respect copyright.PENANAmEyzOsXLic
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徐策快速将望远镜放回口袋,拎起两个透明塑料袋,一袋是两瓶茅台,一袋底下八条软中华,上面是限量版利群烟。118Please respect copyright.PENANAVT8yljg24Q
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他走到路边,装成若无其事的样子朝前走。118Please respect copyright.PENANAFnqvhj3jr4
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奥迪车开到离他几十米外时,突然踩了刹车,放低了车速。因为奥迪车的司机已经发现,前面不远处的路面上,散落着一片碎啤酒瓶,所有开车的人都不会让轮胎傻乎乎地压上啤酒瓶。118Please respect copyright.PENANA19lpbJBUuB
118Please respect copyright.PENANAZ8JuN5yEv0
奥迪车司机踩下刹车,方向打到左边,从左边绕过去,可他刚要加速,发现左侧的前方车道上,同样有片碎啤酒瓶。118Please respect copyright.PENANAlEQ3CHrLfg
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这样,他只能再次踩下刹车,绕到了右边。而徐策,此时刚好就在前面。118Please respect copyright.PENANAAgzYuNhULk
118Please respect copyright.PENANAKicyDr1es3
徐策看了眼车子,装作刚反应过来的样子,挡在车左前方,对着车子大招手,欣喜激动地叫着:“李局,李局……”118Please respect copyright.PENANAfLBby7kLRK
118Please respect copyright.PENANAlEgeq2Posm
车子停下来了,距离徐策此刻站的位置大约有5米,这个距离很好,在他预期的范围区间内。118Please respect copyright.PENANAafQcCKNLly
118Please respect copyright.PENANAWJ2c8MNygW
车窗打开,一个略带酒气的中年男子探出头,怪眼瞪着他:“你谁,干吗啊?”118Please respect copyright.PENANAHU10ujt1Bp
118Please respect copyright.PENANAyaBt0OZCKU
“啊,李局,”他边说边示意了一下手里的袋子,用家乡土话讨好道,“我是徐子豪的表哥。”118Please respect copyright.PENANAwob4FBRC1P
118Please respect copyright.PENANADPpS4DkqWd
中年男子看了眼他手里的袋子,没流露出任何表情,身为沿海发达县城公安局的副局长,他绝对是地方上的权势人物,平日应酬的饭局里,能够和他同席的,都是身价几千万上亿的大老板。他对送礼向来见惯不怪,几袋烟酒怎能打动他?但听到“徐子豪”这个名字,他似乎有点印象,露出微微疑惑的思索状。118Please respect copyright.PENANA5v9RpgydJb
118Please respect copyright.PENANA5u2MfervhV
徐策忙接着道:“我表弟徐子豪上半年捅了城建公司的人关进去了,年轻人冲动不懂事。我舅舅跟我说了好多次。我呢,在美国做了十多年生意,赚了点钱,但在咱们老家没人脉。打听了好些人,都说这事情难办,大概也只有李局您能帮上忙。我只能来求您了。去您单位总不太好,我只能去您家拜访,可您家里没人,小区保安说您还没回来,我打电话给您单位的人,说您出去吃饭了。我想出去吃饭回来总是快的,我就在您小区门口等了些时候,看看时间晚了,我这正准备回去了,没想到路上居然碰着您了。”118Please respect copyright.PENANA473a5X7xAe
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“我家里没人?我老婆不在?”他不解,露出惊讶的表情。118Please respect copyright.PENANAzhNYs2cxRl
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“阿嫂在家的?难道我找错了?我也是听人说的您家地址,在三区六单元是吧?”118Please respect copyright.PENANA9ZawtQeOuj
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“哦,那你是找错了,是五区六单元。”他笑了笑。118Please respect copyright.PENANAcznPjvhYab
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“啧啧,难怪找不着。不过现在总算见到您,也算没白费。”118Please respect copyright.PENANAbhmipgQpVp
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中年男子脸上浮现出客气的笑容,抬头想了想,道:“你说的徐子豪,我想起来了,好像是拆迁的事情,对吧?”118Please respect copyright.PENANAqQyxPfc4Sg
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“对对对。”118Please respect copyright.PENANA2qBIL8fDFZ
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“这事体嘛,难办的,这案子不是我管的你知道伐?”118Please respect copyright.PENANA2av1BjTiWk
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“我知道,我知道,这事情是挺疙瘩的,我问了好些人了,都说也只有你有办法了,捞人肯定要花点钱的,这我晓得,只要人能出来就好。”118Please respect copyright.PENANA8apa7j8zUj
118Please respect copyright.PENANAbk1yCIVzNq
“这不是钱不钱的事体——”他似乎有些不耐烦,对于陌生的送礼者,他一向很忌讳。118Please respect copyright.PENANAsAz5NgiNsQ
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徐策忙把袋子往前递:“这点小东西您先拿上,还有几张超市卡。”他把袋子往前塞,却发现超过车窗的高度,塞不进。——这是他有意设计的。如果东西容易塞得进,万一李局收了东西,说事情明天再谈,自己却不下车,那么徐策就没法儿下手了。118Please respect copyright.PENANA1Rjhe5NTGT
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李局心里冷笑这人是个美国回来的土包子,素不相识的人有求于己,有这么送礼的吗?真是一点都不懂国内的规矩。118Please respect copyright.PENANAJqaUi1TkLH
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李局伸手推托:“这事以后再说吧,东西你先拿回去。”118Please respect copyright.PENANAMu7QJxEqMu
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徐策忙恳求道:“领导,您帮个忙吧,东西也值不了几个钱,您先拿着,我都等了一晚上了。”他露出张苦情脸。118Please respect copyright.PENANALo2xEw0bA2
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俗话说伸手不打笑脸人,官员即便不收礼,也不会把气氛弄尴尬了,更不会故意摆脸色。他深谙此道,出于礼貌,他道:“你上车吧,到我家去说,这事情牵扯到城建公司,我跟你说说具体要怎么办,要找谁。”118Please respect copyright.PENANAu97rtFAEQw
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“哦,那也好的。”118Please respect copyright.PENANAuvsyGKC3QE
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徐策上了右手的副驾驶座,把袋子靠着中间放着,边说边掏烟:“时间也晚了,您家改天再拜访,只要您肯帮忙,这事情准成。我简单说一下情况,……”118Please respect copyright.PENANAVmA2DJUbVZ
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他边说着,边伸手拿出根烟递过去,边准备好伸手挡住驾驶盘,以防压到喇叭。同时,他还需要注意到,等放倒目标,目标的脚松开了刹车,他需要马上把驾驶杆拨到泊车挡,以防溜坡……118Please respect copyright.PENANAmfEWLGJGOs
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这些动作他已经演练了无数次,他的手很稳定。118Please respect copyright.PENANAQAyK0L6cKB
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整件事的过程中,没有人车经过,抛去前面的对话,行动共花了55秒。118Please respect copyright.PENANAgziqBW5Xbm
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因为原本他计划中的第一种情况是李局出于礼貌,下车跟他客套几句,这种情况下,只需要35秒就够了。第二种情况是上车谈,这种情况下他就需要再额外多做几件事,所以总计花了55秒的时间,这也在计划的合理范围内。118Please respect copyright.PENANAi5ain8ev4i
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总之,第一步顺利完成了。118Please respect copyright.PENANA8tGQIufdZy
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从头到尾,他没有半点的紧张。118Please respect copyright.PENANAh3iaY44pVQ
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他原本以为自己会紧张,实际上真的动手时,反而不紧张了。118Please respect copyright.PENANAkVi8Teb6Dq
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虽然是第一次,但他的心理素质好得惊人。118Please respect copyright.PENANAeXJFeYB1dp
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